At first glance, it seems that the goals of Ukraine and the West are exactly the same: a complete liberation of Ukraine and the defeat of Putin. But in truth that is not quite the case. Certainly the West would be happy to see Ukraine restored to its pre-2014 borders, but for it this is not a priority. A return to the situation ante bellum (before February 2022) would be sufficient. Moreover, the West has never said that it is opposed to Ukrainian territorial losses on principle. The western diplomatic (and therefore vague) position is support for a negotiated peace between Russia (regardless of the regime) and a sovereign Ukraine (so it would be up to Ukraine to decide what is acceptable for it or not).
If therefore the emphasis is not the same with regard to the final objectives of the War (total liberation for Ukraine, peace negotiated as soon as possible for the West), there is also a disagreement on the means. Ukraine is fighting for its survival and its sovereignty. All means are good. Ukraine is ready to do anything to free itself. The West on its side is absolutely not ready to give everything for the Liberation of Ukraine. Indeed, military and economic aid from the West is certainly important, but it always has limits. And the reason is: the West wants to avoid an uncontrolled escalation with Russia, lest a nuclear conflict (however small) might explode.
Also, Ukraine is morally ready to fight for as long as it takes. The West says it is ready to support Ukraine as much as necessary, but in truth the West (because it is democratic) has to face internal pressure: production costs are rising because of the energy crisis and this affects households and the cost of living. Very quickly the support for the struggle for the Freedom of the Ukrainian people is forgotten because of the economic difficulties and it becomes less and less easy to justify to the public opinion a new delivery of arms or a new credit granted to Ukraine (especially when you do not know when this credit will be reimbursed).
In fact, the West wants an end to this War as soon as possible and at a lower cost. Certainly it wants the liberation of Ukraine, but as long as it does not fall completely under Russian control, it suits the West even if Ukraine has to cede territories. The West cannot accept a capitulation of Ukraine because it would open the door to an internal rebellion in NATO itself and could lead to the fall of other regimes close to Russia and other invasions (even more costly to prevent) in the future. This is why we must not believe that Ukraine is not important for the West or is only a means of pressure on Russia as the Kremlin propaganda would have us believe. But the West does not think in terms of Ukrainian interests but in terms of overall European stability. The West wants to maintain its stable position more than it wants a reconstituted Ukraine.
But I think the West is wrong to stay in this purely defensive position (we support Ukraine as long as it remains a wall against Russian expansionism). The winning strategy is more often offensive than defensive. After all, defending yourself is waiting to lose another day. But if the West cannot enter into direct conflict with Russia, nor can it sustain this War indefinitely… What is to be done? As usual, to solve a problem you have to know how to take a step back and look at the context in a more global context. And in our present case, what should interest the West is not only the War in Ukraine, but the strategic position of Russia itself: Russia must be pivoted so that it joins the West instead of challenging it, and that requires a Revolution.
Of course, the West is not interested in supporting a Revolution in Russia so that Russia becomes stronger or its people live better. But neither can the West ignore historical materialism. If the United States implemented a Marshall Plan in 1948, it was not for Europeans to live better. This was because the reconstruction of Western Europe directly benefited the United States (new markets, ability of Western Europe to resist Soviet expansionism). The same is true with Russia today. The West needs a New Russia to guarantee its interests.
These interests, I have already spoken about in other articles and in particular we can remember a need for security in Eastern Europe (we see what insecurity in Ukraine gives us today ) and a need for a high-performance but lower-cost market that may be attractive for Western investment. Let’s not forget the energy needs and the geographical proximity that allow transport savings. I will repeat it ad nauseam : Russia needs the West as the West needs Russia. This is all the more evident when we see the damage caused by this War, Russia and Ukraine are suffering, but the West is also suffering from it. This proves that this War should never have taken place and that this historical crime is total.
But the West needs Russia on its side now more than ever when you consider the Chinese threat on the horizon. No one can doubt that today, towards the middle or the end of this decade, the greatest War ever seen may arise: the Great Pacific War. It is not for nothing that the United States is now opening microchip factories in Texas or that alliances are being signed between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Everyone is preparing to be in a position of advantage if a conflict were to break out in the Pacific.
If Russia is on China's side (or more precisely if Russia becomes a de facto colony of China), China will have access to all Russian mineral and energy resources at bargain prices and will be able to project its power on the Sea of China. Moreover, if China were to attack Taiwan, Putin could (wrongly) think that the United States will be too busy in the Pacific Ocean to intervene in Europe and could take advantage of this to attack the Baltic countries and Poland in particular. He would of course be wrong because the United States is more than capable of waging a War on two fronts and Russia would be crushed but this raises the uncomfortable question of a Nuclear War between Russia and the United States... In short a Third World War that would destroy our civilization.
But if Russia is on the side of the West, China would be deprived of resources bought at a discount and would be placed in the same situation as Japan in 1941 (countdown before exhaustion of stocks and therefore guaranteed economic collapse). With Russia pressing in the North, China would have to think twice about invading Taiwan while the West could focus entirely on the Pacific Ocean as Europe would be stable and at peace (not to mention the end of any dictatorship in Europe with the collapse of the Lukashenko regime in Belarus).
The West therefore has everything to gain from a free and democratic Russia, capable of guaranteeing peace in Europe and access to a dynamic and innovative market (because of the post-revolutionary liberal reforms) as well as to energy at low price. A democratic Russia also symbolizes the end of the War in Ukraine (and its Liberation) as well as a much-needed economic rebound today. A free Russia also makes it possible to reverse the strategic situation vis-à-vis China, which can not only avoid a Nuclear War of magnitude, but also guarantee the Victory of Freedom in the face of tyranny.
And all this the West can achieve only through a Revolution in Russia. There are no other ways. So we have to stop this short-sightedness which consists in only looking at the situation in Ukraine. You have to have the courage to understand that it is in everyone's interest to support a Revolution in Russia. The West must therefore do everything in its power to support it. Victory will not only come through the delivery of tanks, it will also come through support for Russian protest movements, such as the movement around Alexei Navalny.
Conclusion
Ukraine and the West are playing against the clock, with each month that passes without Victory, the cost of the War weighs on them and diminishes their chances for the future. Ukraine cannot afford to lose or relinquish territory to Russia but the West cannot afford an uncontrolled escalation with Russia and only provides Ukraine with what is strictly necessary for Ukraine to continue its defense without destroying the Russian army. Ukraine and the West are at an impasse as time favors Putin who can afford to wait until he loses. This whole situation benefits above all China, which is gradually colonizing Russia and preparing its plans for the Pacific. Russia is sinking and deteriorating at a maddening speed and is suffering its worst downgrade since 1991.
For a free Ukraine, for a strengthened West in the face of a threatening China, for a free, democratic and happy Russia, we need a Russian Revolution. It is the only solution that promises Victory on all fronts and for the greatest number. This would benefit the whole world. It should be everyone's priority. Russians must fight for their Freedom, Ukrainians must support them as much as they can, and the West must foster such a Revolution in Russia.
We have a historic chance to change our destiny and avoid the worst, while correcting the mistakes of the past. Everyone has for too long accepted to turn a blind eye to the degradation of freedoms in Russia and the murder of its democracy as long as hydrocarbons came cheap and there was no war. Well now the War and the crisis are here. There is no longer a choice. We must act. The Hour of Judgment has come. It will either be a Revolution in Russia or the Death of Liberty.
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