As I repeat in almost all my articles published since December 2021, Russia has nothing to gain in this War. This War was thought by Putin and for Putin. Its main objective is to keep the regime in power as protests mount in the country, in particular through the work of Alexei Navalny and his team. Moreover, we see that Putin has already succeeded in transforming Russia in just one year from a seemingly “democratic dictatorship”, a kind of hybrid between traditional Russia and a liberal facade, to a real authoritarian tyranny tending towards a totalitarian regime. All organizations defending human rights have been liquidated, all opponents are in prison, all forms of opposition are prohibited and most political opponents have fled the country. Russian society is now hostage to an organized gang running the Kremlin. The War provided the excuse needed to sweep away the last obstacles to Putin's continued rule. And to get there, they had to fabricate this fake “Patriotic War”. Any other goals Putin might have in this War (breaking the world order, seizing the resources of southern and eastern Ukraine, restoring the Soviet sphere of influence) are secondary to his goal of staying in power.
This is why it is important to decouple the goals of Putin and his clan from the needs of Eternal Russia. And Russia does not need this War. Worse still, this War is destroying the future of the country like no War before it had. The focus of most of my articles on this blog is to determine the damage Russia has suffered while trying to suggest remedies for them. And the remedies are always the same: end of the War and end of Putin's regime.
But I think it is necessary here to synthesize a few reasons that alone show why the end of the War and of Putin's regime is an absolute priority for Russia.
First, of course, there is the strategic aspect. As I showed in my previous article, Putin has achieved incredible feats in this War: strengthening NATO, strengthening Ukraine militarily, creating the conditions for NATO membership for Sweden and Finland, etc. The debacle on the strategic plan is total and it is unfortunately consumed. It is no longer possible to go back. But the problem is, if Putin stays in power, what more humiliations will he inflict upon Russia? Lose all influence in the Caucasus (which is already about to happen), lose ascendancy over Central Asia? Lead to the destruction of the Black Sea Fleet? To stop the bleeding strategically, we must get rid of Putin and quickly compensate for the damage caused by this War.
Then on the economic level, the rapid end of the War is an absolute priority. Every day of this War costs Russia months of development in the future. Whatever happens, Russia will have to pay reparations. The less is destroyed, the less Russia will pay. And we already have so much to pay an atone for … The sanctions are piling up, the losses are gigantic, the prospects are catastrophic. And on top of that Putin has succeeded in dealing a fatal blow to what has made Russia so successful over the past twenty years: the energy sector. With Europe's refusal to buy Russian gas and oil, Russia now has no choice but to sell these same products at a discount to other states like China who are taking advantage of the situation to infiltrate and bring Russia's development to its knees. The future of Russia with Putin in power is the transformation of Russia into a colony of the Chinese Empire, dedicated to selling raw materials at knock-down prices and then begging for a few credits here and there. And in addition the volumes cannot be the same as those supplied to Europe because the infrastructure does not exist for these countries. And all this without mentioning the toxicity of the Russian market because of the country's reputation after the aggression in Ukraine. For the first time in decades the Russian federal budget is in deficit and bills are being passed to exploit the country's strategic reserve funds... Economic collapse is assured with this War.
And finally the human catastrophe. Every day that passes are new tragedies suffered by the Ukrainian people who will not forgive us. The note is already bitter as it is. It is now guaranteed that our peoples will never again be “brothers” as they were before. And the disaster is also Russian. How many young people have died for nothing? How many of our fathers are going to die and leave a void behind? How many talented and educated people have fled the country to now contribute to the growth of other Nations than ours? This War is a national suicide. This suicide is as much demographic as it is moral.
It is therefore imperative for Russia to end the War. And it is not the control of Ukraine's hydrocarbon resources that will make up for its losses. In addition, betting on hydrocarbons is a pure folly : the market tends towards zero carbon and therefore seeks to break away from fossil fuels. The hydrocarbon market is doomed to disappear and betting all Russian development on it was already madness 10 years ago!
We must therefore get rid of Putin and his regime. Russia's survival depends on it! But it will also be necessary to completely rethink Russian society and its place in the world. A titanic job. And this is called a Revolution. We mistakenly think that a Revolution means massacres, civil war and repression. I do not exclude that it is possible, but the definition of the Revolution would rather be a form of “reset”. A reinvention of society. its restructuring. And there are many Revolutions that have succeeded in democratizing society without having to go through phases of revolutionary dictatorship.
A Revolution is never a gift. And it should always be avoided if possible. It is a difficult and dangerous process. But sometimes it is unavoidable, as a cure for a dangerous illness. Like physiotherapy. And Russia is suffering from a cancer. This cancer has a name: Putin. Its symptoms are known: corruption, tyranny and violence. And now we have no choice. Putin will not leave power voluntarily. And his regime can survive him so it is not enough to end the reign of Putin himself, the whole building must be dismantled. We need a Revolution. This is the only solution to guarantee a future for the Motherland.