Why don't the Russian people revolt? This is the question that many people ask themselves (especially those who live outside of Russia). How is it possible for a people to tolerate such a government for so long, bringing the country to the abyss? Why don't people understand that their power is in their numbers and nothing can stop them?
The reasons are many. Among them, the most important seem to me to be state control over the media and repression. It must therefore be understood that while a large part of the population does not understand what is happening (because they do not have access to sources of information other than those loyal to the State), the other part of the population is paralyzed by the violence of the repressions. It is therefore in fact impossible for the Russians to rebel… for the moment.
The context is not yet conducive to the collapse of the regime. And you shouldn't judge the Russians too harshly… First you have to understand the violence they face (police violence, disappearances and imprisonment for the use of a single word). And you have to, secondly, understand that they are above all human. Do you find it easy to encourage people in your country (whatever it is) to take action for women's rights? To fight global warming? To act against the proliferation of weapons? The human being always calculates his risk and his personal profit. The result at the start of the 21st century is that no one wants to take responsibility for fear of paying the consequences… alone. The notion of solidarity action has been profoundly affected.
The average Russian today (just like any other nationality facing other equally acute political questions) holds the following reasoning: I am not responsible for what is happening and I do not see why I alone should risk prison. All opposition is feels useless.
But all of that can change. This requires a few events:
First, propaganda must begin to destroy itself. This is already partly the case because in Russia propaganda is beginning to lose sight of a unified message. On Russian television the attacks are multiplying against generals, against the military organization, etc. And the contradictions of propaganda have already borne fruit as more and more Russians are beginning to realize what is really happening and are joining our ranks.
Then the global context must change so that everyone feels the weight of what is happening. The economic sanctions, the authorities' inept response to the technological carnage and the losses on the front line, and the humiliating retreat in northern Ukraine should be able to make all Russians understand that it is impossible to remain passive and that one cannot be “neutral”. Everyone is responsible, even if they didn't make the initial decision to invade.
The elites must break rank. Indeed, if the summit of power begins to divide, the possibilities of the fall of the Government will then open to us. Like a house of cards, everything will collapse. The chapel fights will lead to a sabotage of the Putinian edifice as a whole.
Once these elements are in place, the Revolution can begin. And we already see how everything is starting to go in this direction. The winter will be harsh. And the changes will be brutal. Two scenarios are possible:
Either the elites will rebel against the Power and this will lead people to take to the streets. (1991 Putsch scenario).
Or people will come out into the streets causing the elites to give up power to save themselves. (scenario of February 1917).
No matter the scenario, the military and law enforcement will switch sides as soon as they see where the wind is blowing. Their loyalty to the regime is bought. But money will not guarantee them a future in which their “client” is deposed. So don't be afraid, when the context allows it, repression will no longer be able to do anything against us. And I promise you that if I can, I will be by your side in the street and I will face the guns of repression with courage.
So what is important for us, citizens of the New Russia which is now being born, is to convince our compatriots again and again. We have to be ready. We need to have an action program, an alternative model, and a precise ideology. And every Russian must understand that it is time for him to no longer be a subject of his majesty, but a citizen of the Republic.
The Russian Nation is above all the sum of us all. Through our daily actions, we represent it. So we have to be ready to come out, and come out en masse when the time is right. If we miss this appointment, someone else will continue to make our decisions for us. This is why, as I wrote in my call for the Revolution (For a New Russia : Call for Revolution (letribun.net)), it will be necessary to come out massively.
Nobody expects a miracle from the Russian people, especially now when the repressions are so violent. But when the context allows it, everyone must do their civic duty and liberate Russia.