Russia and the Russians are today divided into two camps. Those who think the Revolution is inevitable (I'm one of them) and those who think it won't happen. In each of these camps one can find supporters of Putin as well as his opponents. Thus it is quite possible to hear people supporting the current regime being terrified that a Revolution is approaching and therefore wanting to put all their efforts to avoid this, just as we can see opponents of Putin giving up and believe that a Revolution in Russia is impossible because the Russian people have been zombified.
But the truth is, no one knows what's going to happen. Those who think the Revolution will happen may be right...as are those who think it can never happen. The future will tell us who will be right and in the end, it will only be a question of luck… or almost. Because luck can be helped. In fact, we must implement all our efforts so that the result is the one we want. So there is no point in speculating or describing the events. We must act.
And do not doubt that if we act in order to obtain our Revolution, on the other side, our adversaries work to defeat it. It is the aggregate of each person's actions, and their intensity, that will determine which side will win. There will be winners and losers. There will be lucky ones and unlucky ones. And no one will be interested in those who have stayed on the sidelines, pretending to be unconcerned.
But this state of affairs forces us to ask ourselves the following question: who does what exactly? For three months now we have seen various actions carried out by various people from all sides. We've seen heroes fade into nothingness just as we've seen people change sides. Today there are many opposition movements to Putin, all more different from each other. Some are attached to Navalny's team, others to the Legion Freedom of Russia... All agree with the observation that I have presented in previous articles: Putin is an evil that is destroying the country and we need a revolution.
But yet no unity has been achieved, no program has been proposed.
It is also absurd to see that people who fight for the same objective (the end of Putin's reign) started shooting each other in the feet. We are divided and therefore we are inaudible. Putin's camp therefore has a considerable advantage over us: their camp is united. Of course, this is a fact of the moment, and Putin's camp can crumble and divide with astonishing speed... But at least Putin has the intelligence to maintain a monolith of authority and a verticality of power. This allows him to stand up to the onslaught. The efforts of the opposition are therefore like water falling on rocks. Admittedly, the water has the effect of destroying the rock over time, but this process takes millions of years… We must therefore change our approach. Our wave must become a torrent, and this torrent must be akin to lightning and not to water.
To do this, we need unity.
This Unit must necessarily be temporary. Once a new regime is established in Russia, the normal game of institutions and democratic voting will have to decide which side will have the honor of governing the country and having the custody of freedoms. But in the meantime, it is absolutely necessary that all the opponents of the regime come together around the same group and the same project. Ward battles must remain frozen. Personal ambitions must give way to the interest of the Motherland.
What we need is a shadow government and a specific program to end the crisis and rebuild society.
Saying that the Government is corrupt and incapable will never make a Revolution. The people know that they are being lied to, that the Government is made up of thieves, that the country is in crisis. But it will always prefer a stable government over chaos. What you have to do is offer it an alternative. You have to explain to him that he can live better and in a respectable country if he stops suffering and tolerating when another choice is possible for him. This is why Putin has put so much effort in recent years to prevent the emergence of an alternative to his power. He did it so that people would be terrified of what Russia will be without him. Russians saw in the opposition only destructive anarchists aiming to destroy what has been built. They did not see the lofty ideals proposed by the Liberals, nor programs, nor an overall vision of the future.
I understand the reluctance of the opposition. They do not want to get wet on a program while waiting for the establishment of fair and free elections. But unfortunately Revolutions do not happen after a democratic vote but before it. It is therefore necessary to have a structure and a program before the occurrence of revolutionary events.
We must therefore propose a Provisional Government immediately. With a candidate for the post of head of state (and we already know who has the most moral authority to occupy this post), possible political leaders by government department (as did states under occupation and in exile) and with an action program to resolve the current crisis, an alternative will appear. This approach is somewhat new but it makes perfect sense in the 21st century. There are millions of Russians abroad and many Russian resistance fighters in Russia who are hiding. They adhere to a New Russia. And this New Russia must have a face, it must be represented. Just as De Gaulle was the face of eternal France between 1940 and 1945, we must show a face of eternal and legitimate Russia. We must give hope to all opponents by showing that we are here, that there is a flame around which we can unite. That the Motherland exists where we are. The Poutinian vertical will then have its alter ego. This movement will be key in the struggle that is yet to come. But it's a fundamental step if we want to be successful and not just mope about doing nothing and just having to comment.
But this Government must also propose a pact of legitimacy. Indeed, it can only be legitimate if it guarantees respect for human rights and if it promises to step down once the current crisis is resolved and free elections are held. But this Government must also have the courage to state its ideas and its program before taking power. No Russian will support opponents who seize power without knowing what they intend to do with it. They will prefer that power remain in the wrong hands, as long as those hands are known to the public and present no surprises. We must therefore open our cards and say what we are going to do.
A credible alternative will then exist. And when Russians' feelings and opinions start to change, when mistrust starts to mount against Putin, when Russians start to understand where we really are and where we are going, they will not only be able to express their anger against the power in place, but they can also support a project that is available to them.
This is why I intend to publish in the following months the program to which a Provisional Government should adhere and the political ideals which must found the Russian State of tomorrow. I will of course add a historical reflection on the logic of state building that has brought us to the point where we are and why we must choose a particular path to avoid the same mistakes.