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War in Ukraine: Check Mate (Western Strategy)

Updated: Mar 4, 2022

“Know your enemy and know yourself, if you had a hundred wars to fight, a hundred times you will be victorious” The Art of War, Sun Tzu

To win for sure in any strategy game, you need to know exactly what is happening on the playing field and what the opponent is going to do. I will show in the next article the likely course of a War in Ukraine and its consequences for Russia (which will perfectly illustrate that the Russian Power no longer lives in reality but in a magical world which misleads it and therefore guarantees its failure) but it seems appropriate to use this quote to introduce this article because I will explain here why the West has already won without fighting.

Even if one should never be absolute in one's positions and that basically everything is possible, one must nevertheless realize that in the current state of affairs, the West has every chance on its side to win this confrontation.

First, you have to understand the position taken by the United States and NATO. They will not directly support Ukraine by sending troops to fight Russian forces. This is not due to NATO weakness, fear or even a tactical decision not to attack. Indeed, intervening militarily in Ukraine would have been quite feasible in other circumstances. What prevents the West from intervening directly is the Russian nuclear arsenal. Any military intervention in which NATO troops kill Russian troops would lead to an Open War between NATO and Russia and thus to a nuclear exchange with a race for the first strategic strike.

To rephrase, the allies had declared war on Germany in 1939 when Hitler decided to invade Poland because they had guaranteed the independence of the Polish state but would they have done so if Hitler had the bomb? Of course not.

So NATO's refusal to engage militarily should not be interpreted so much as a sign of weakness but as a strategic decision to avoid the collapse of human civilization in a nuclear winter.

Moreover, it is obvious that if Russia invades Ukraine, it will do so precisely because Ukraine is not a member of NATO. What is quite ironic in itself, as what puts Ukraine in danger is the fact that it is not a member of this alliance.

What is remarkable however is that time has been on the side of the West since 2013. With each passing year Ukraine is getting closer to the West and further away from Russia. This subject deserves an article in itself but in a few words: as long as Russia is warlike and its regime does not change from within, Ukraine will inevitably move closer to Europe. So Russia is obliged to act to avoid this result, but its action risks, ironically, accelerating the process of distancing between Russia and Ukraine. The only way to avoid this result is to change Russia and Putin cannot accept that. So as it is right now, time is on the Western side and playing against Putin.

But this crisis benefits the West in other ways as well. First, this crisis allows NATO to regain its former glory. Indeed, think about it, a few years ago we wondered if we still needed an Atlantic alliance and if we shouldn't rather dismantle it. Now those times are over. The entire European continent has now just woken up and realized that without NATO, Europe would have already been swallowed up by Russia. Finland and Sweden clearly intend to join the organization to guarantee their sovereignty and security. The Europeans, who were thought to be divided, are now united and support NATO and Ukraine.

Putin believed that an opportunity was opening before him because the West was divided as never before and in full retreat since the departure of American troops in Afghanistan. He was seriously mistaken. Not only have his imperialist actions in Ukraine had the effect of uniting Western unity, they have also had the effect of showing that the West will not back down where it counts.

Because it is obvious that Putin did not seek the War at the beginning. What he wanted was a Diplomatic Victory. He wanted to show his people that he was still capable of winning concessions from the West by shaking his fist and making a show of force.

Results ? Western countries did not even deign to respond to his ultimatum and were not terrified of his power. In addition, they have shown a real commitment to defending their values by jointly proposing a sanctions package and by endangering the Nordstream 2 pipeline project. This is considerable because it shows a willingness on the part of Europe not to be intimidated by threats to its energy security while seeking alternatives to avoid dependence on Russia. The great Russian geopolitical lever (the pipeline) is therefore in danger and Russia risks losing this strategic asset.

And yet it was all predictable. The West could not back down any further. In the name of Liberty and its principles, the West had to stop concessions and signs of weakness and disunity. The West certainly could not attack, but its show of strength and will comes from its determination to stand firm. And that's what it did. We can therefore already see that the West is more united, stronger and more determined than ever. It is already a Great Victory. Thus, by his bellicose policy, Putin has made the West strong and exposed the fact that his threats do not move anyone.

But in truth the situation is even more to the advantage of the West. Because Putin's regime is now back to the wall and there is no victory scenario that presents itself to him. Putin wanted to be threatening and nobody flinched and gave him what he wanted, his bluff failed. And so he is now obliged to keep his word. Because if he makes threats but then does not act, it means that he no longer has the will or the power. But at the same time he knows very well that if he really invades Ukraine he risks an unprecedented economic and political crisis and probably a Revolution. His position is very reminiscent of that of Khrushchev in 1962. He plunged the world into a crisis similar to that of the Cuban Missile Crisis. He can't bring himself to move forward but he knows that if he backs down he will lose power. The honorable thing to do would be to resign for the good of the Motherland. But Putin is not Khrushchev…

So if he advances he runs great risks of losing his power and of pushing Russia into an unprecedented crisis. But if he backs down he will be seen as weak and as having put Russia in a weak position to get nothing in return. His legitimacy will be questioned and he risks a revolt in his own camp.

For the United States, a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be similar to its own failures in Vietnam and Afghanistan. On the other side, if Russia backs down, they win by forfeit. So they have nothing to lose and have already won. Moreover, by constantly predicting an imminent attack, the United States removed any element of surprise that Putin had counted on. Indeed, if he wanted to justify his invasion by means of an unforeseen pseudo Ukrainian attack, he failed. He is therefore literally nailed to the spot while everything is positioned against him.

In a game of chess, when the king can no longer advance but also cannot stand still the game is over: checkmate. Putin has already lost. The West has already won. The only questions that remain are how many innocent victims will have to die and suffer before the evidence becomes clear to all? And how much damage will Putin's regime inflict on Russia and the world before the Russian people say "Enough!" and overthrow this power?

It is urgent for Russians to wake up and face the truth. The longer we wait, the greater the damage will be and the more difficult it will be to repair. The destiny of the Motherland and of the world depends on it.

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