First of all, and before starting this article, I want to say how ashamed I am of what is done in the name of my Motherland. I certainly understand that I am not the most to blame in this situation because I do not support the current military operation and have been trying for months to resist Putin and prepare for the future while trying to avoid the worst. But the fact is that I feel responsible for what is happening. Because I am Russian. Because I couldn't stop this infernal machine. Because it is in the name of my Nation that this crime is being committed. And for any normal Russian, what is being committed at the moment is a horrible crime, it is sickening. This crime is equivalent for the Russian mentality to the rape of a little sister. It is one thing to carry out military operations abroad, which can be brutal in their nature, it is quite another to bomb brothers, people who look so much like us that it could have been our own family in the rubble. And basically that's what's happening, because by attacking Ukraine and the Ukrainians, Putin is leading an attack against Russia and the Russians. He seeks to kill Ukrainian freedom in order to kill Russian freedom. And that's also what I'm standing against. I want to save Ukraine, because I want to save Russia.
“There will never be a Revolution in Russia again.” Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman.
This quote is the pinnacle of hubris that has seized the top of the Russian elite. And like all hubris, it precedes the fall.
The original plan
Before talking about the course of the War, I must make you understand how the decision was made. It was taken in complete denial of reality. Indeed, one of the characteristic features of authoritarian regimes is that at some point the Autocrat can no longer bear to know the truth and therefore the people who work for him and bring him true information are dismissed and punished. After a while there are only sycophants around him whose objective is to please the Autocrat by validating his desires.
Thus Putin was persuaded of several misconceptions:
The Russian army cannot be stopped by the Ukrainian army and therefore Victory is guaranteed.
The Ukrainian people are waiting to be able to reconnect with the Russians and will welcome the Russian troops with a standing ovation and the Ukrainian soldiers will lay down their arms.
The Russian people are behind him and he will have a surge in popularity similar to that of 2014 when Crimea returned to Russia.
The West is divided and will only be able to take a few sanctions that will be easy to withstand.
China is with him and will support him until the end, so he will not be isolated.
Thus the plan put in place consisted of a quick strike and a capture of Kiev in 48 hours. With this capture of Kiev a new friendly government would be set up. The population will never know what really happened so it will be easy to make them believe that there was only a small magnitude operation in the Donbass. As soon as Victory is achieved, the West will have to accept political defeat, it will no longer try to advance NATO towards Russia and the countries bordering Russia will line up so as not to suffer the fate of Ukraine..
So the plan was perfect. It guaranteed a military victory capable of restoring Putin's image after two years of pandemic and the disorders caused by Navalny's anti-corruption campaigns. Russia would once again be a Great Power and be on its way to re-establishing its Empire within its sphere of influence while achieving triumph over a decadent and inept West.
The Reality
At the time of writing this article we are on the ninth day of the offensive and several things have already broken down in Putin's plan.
First , the military offensive did not achieve the expected results. Kiev is still holding, the Ukrainians are not surrendering, the population is hostile. Moreover, even on the military level the situation is tense. The Ukrainian army defends itself much better than expected and the Russian army suffers heavy losses and is greatly slowed in its advance.
All this was predictable. Because indeed if it is claimed that the Ukrainians and the Russians are the same people, it was obvious that the Ukrainians were going to defend their country as the Russians would do. During World War II the Germans were not just confronted with a stronger and more armed Red Army than they thought, they were confronted with a resistant and willing people. On the other hand, the Russians have never been good in terms of offense. While the initial attack may be brutal, the Russian people instinctively fight only to defend their country. And examples abound: Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905, First World War, Finnish War of 1939-1940.
Thus an ill-prepared and demotivated Russian army attacked a people who will defend their land tooth and nail, to the death if necessary. We are therefore at 180,000 soldiers against 40,000,000 Ukrainians, who defend their home.
Moreover, even on the tactical level the Ukrainians show ingenuity. They have indeed adopted a devastating tactic which consists in not attacking the Russian columns frontally, but in waiting for the passage of columns before attacking the rear guard and thus cutting off the Russian troops from their communications with the rear. Thus the Russian troops are thrown into traps without supplies and are attacked from all sides.
Certainly, Russia dominates the airspace over Ukraine. And that gives it a huge advantage. But no War can be won by air alone. And on the ground, every day turns to Ukraine's advantage.
Added to this is another factor. The nature of the country attacked. Indeed, think about it, the US military, by far the most powerful and capable in the world, could never subdue Vietnam and Afghanistan. Yet these are small, sparsely populated countries with very little industrialization. Ukraine is a huge country with a large population and it is an industrialized state. The Russian army is a decent army but not at the level of the US army. On this observation, Russian defeat is therefore guaranteed, even if only in the long term.
But that's not all. Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan are countries with few developed urban centers. And neither Russia nor the United States has succeeded with modern military means in taking a big city without bombarding it completely. In Modern Warfare, to take a city, you have to raze it. And the example of Stalingrad shows that even this may not be enough.
However, Putin's plan wanted a capitulation of Kiev practically without a fight ! The reason is that he doesn't want to raze the city. The obliterated images of Kiev would ravage Russian opinion and turn the world against him. But it is impossible to take the city otherwise!
This is why the offensive has been reinforced this week. Because over the last four days only a third of the Russian forces present were mobilized. This is why the hardest phase of the War is ahead of us and why it is still possible for Putin to take Kiev.
But the problems don't end there.
Even if Putin succeeds in taking Kiev and establishing a government loyal to him, he faces another problem: occupation. He announced that he did not want to occupy Ukraine. Very well !
But how does he intend to maintain a government loyal to him but that the Ukrainian people will hate without keeping it in place with occupying forces? And with each day of the occupation the Russian losses will accumulate. Very quickly, Ukraine will become an Afghanistan for Russia, but ten times worse.
It is at this moment that we must speak about the internal situation of the country.
Russia
On D-Day when the attack began, no patriotic winds blew over Russia. The media are of course muzzled and even today the Russians do not know of the crimes committed in their name. If they knew, mass events would have already taken place.
It must be said that Putin has done a good job. His people are terrified to utter apathy. Russians don't want to know anything unless it concerns them personally and they prefer to believe what the Kremlin tells them (with of course documentaries and reports put together by the best communicators in the world who are paid a fortune to justify the unjustifiable).
The Russians still believe today that there is a low intensity operation, that the Russians are not aiming at any civilian targets and that the Russian army is welcomed as heroes by the local population who are saved from the clutches of the “Nazis”. Besides, we can understand them, that's what they want to believe. The Russians saving their brothers (the Ukrainian people) from the evil Nazis who are on the payroll of the West seeking to subjugate Greater Russia is the kind of lie that goes down well because it speaks to the Russian soul and its history.
But the key to the maneuver is that the Russians do not have access to other sources of information. Moreover, the Kremlin has clearly increased the pressure on the media by attacking and censoring Twitter, by cutting Facebook, YouTube and Instagram. Moreover, the Ministry of Defense still claims that there are only a few victims in the Russian army in this operation, whereas the testimonies abound on the dead.
However, intellectuals, singers and artists publicly spoke out against the War (and this among artists close to the Government) and thousands of people came out of their homes to demonstrate.
Soon this wave can become a torrent. Because once the truth begins to filter through the walls erected by censorship (especially via word of mouth or the return of coffins), Russians will understand what has been done in their name. At that time the sanctions will have their full effect, because the Russians will understand that their daily life has not been disturbed by the outside seeking to submit Russia but by the irresponsible behavior of its own Government.
Moreover, we are already seeing Russian troops surrendering, the army is starting to hate the Government for what can only be seen as a betrayal, the intelligence services are starting to turn their backs on the regime.
And all these elements work together: the sanctions, the discontent, the hatred of the military, the crushing of freedoms. In truth Putin now seeks to kill Ukraine's Freedom and destroy the last vestiges of Freedom that were introduced by Gorbachev. He would prefer to see his country under complete lockdown to stay in place. But Russians have become accustomed to having access to the internet, to eating better, to traveling abroad, to living in times of peace. It's all been taken away from them. We have never seen such a thing, that a state faced backtracking on its development to this point. And in truth these efforts are pathetic because the Russian Government seeks to prevent the explosion of the pressure cooker by putting even more pressure on it. The explosion will only be stronger.
Finally, a few words on sanctions: Putin thought Western sanctions would be symbolic and superficial as usual. He did not think the West capable of standing up to him. Now even his plans to save the economy in a worst-case scenario are in shambles. Russia does not have access to the funds it has prepared in the event of a fall and therefore the Russian economy has been falling into a bottomless pit for days.
Even China, which was supposed to be his geopolitical and economic guarantor, is turning its back on him to avoid any association with him.
Failure is omnipresent.
And that's why Putin agreed to negotiate with the Ukrainians. Two weeks ago he said “It is useless to negotiate with puppets. We know who to negotiate with (the Americans)” (I paraphrase). Now he is ready to negotiate with the Ukrainians directly and he is even starting to back down on certain issues such as the so-called “denazification” of Ukraine.
He has his back to the wall and is looking for an escape that does not come. He is even afraid of his associates now who are ready to throw him to the wolves to save their own skins. The Putin regime is already at the end of its tether.
One thing is certain: the end of the Poutin regime is a matter of months or even weeks … But this fall is guaranteed and it was Putin himself who dug his own grave.
Now the priority for the Russian people is the Revolution. We have no other alternatives. We need a Revolution to save the Russian soul, we need a Revolution to provide guarantees to the world that such a thing can never happen again by our will, we need a Revolution to live better and live free. This crisis may be the last opportunity for the Russian people to finally rise up and change their destiny.
If even a quarter of the population takes to the streets in the next few days, there will be 36 million demonstrators! Such a thing has never been seen in History ! And believe me, there won't be enough police to arrest them all, not enough judges to try them all and not enough places in the prisons to lock them all up. We have nothing to fear except fear itself!
By assassinating Ukraine, we are also assassinating Russia. And that is why I will now focus on articles explaining the need for Revolution and the program that must be held after the fall of the regime.