This new year 2023 begins with for most of us the same question: will the War end this year? The answer is that it is difficult to know. Some claim that the War will indeed end this year because either Ukraine will succeed in breaking the Russian front (thus leading to a general defeat of Russia) or that Russia will eventually achieve its objectives by resorting to the strategy of the steamroller and that the mass of the mobilized will be enough to break the Ukrainian army in spite of its modern equipment and its morale. Others say no, the War will continue for years to come as it seems to freeze in place and becomes a war of attrition.
For my part, I think that it is useful to make predictions and try to guess what the future holds for us, but the most important thing remains determining a plan and putting all our efforts into its accomplishment, hoping that destiny will support us. I will therefore not in the next articles analyze the course of the War but rather analyze, actor by actor, the objectives and the possible outcomes to determine which are the acceptable or catastrophic scenarios for each of them, and finally to determine what is the scenario that gives the best result for everyone (except one).
Ukraine
Ukraine has only one objective: the liberation of its territory. Contrary to what one might think, a simple end to hostilities is of no use to it. Indeed, surrendering one's territories to illegal annexation by a foreign enemy occupying your country is an undesirable outcome and akin to defeat. The Government and the President would not survive it politically, the morale of the army and the entire Nation would collapse, the human losses (both civilian and military) would be in vain. A negotiated peace, a truce or an armistice are unacceptable to the Ukrainians as long as their country is occupied. And this is all the more true when we know that Russia occupies land rich in resources (both natural and industrial) and the seaboard (with the exception of Odesa) of Ukraine. Ukraine is therefore cut off from its new hydrocarbon resources and its traditional resources affiliated with these lands, and all its maritime projection and therefore its ability to trade with the world. Some estimate that these lands accounted for roughly a third of Ukraine's pre-war GDP. Not recovering them when Ukraine has to rebuild itself and will have to pay its debts to Europe is pure and simple suicide.
The tragedy is that this scenario could happen. If the losses become unbearable, if the technical means run out, if the funding vanishes, Ukraine will have no choice. She would have a humiliating peace imposed on her because she would not be able to liberate her territory. Such a peace would therefore necessarily benefit Putin to the detriment of Ukraine. It is therefore imperative for Ukraine to win and have its needs covered by Western assistance. She must win before her resources run out.
But can she? All the experts I have listened to are puzzled. They do not exclude a victory for Ukraine, of course. They fully admit that another successful offensive is possible if Ukraine gets everything she needs to carry it out. But they agree on one thing: successful operations as those that happened in Kharkiv and Kherson are no longer an option. Russia is now in a defensive position on most of the front (which puts it in a position of advantage), it has learned from its mistakes, it has massed its mobilized personnel to cover the faults on the front and it knows where operations could take place. Breaking the Russian front becomes an extremely difficult task. This is only possible if Ukraine has all the equipment it needs and again, the delivery of this equipment is not a guarantee of Victory.
If the liberation operations fail, Ukraine will have only one hope: the collapse of Putin's regime at home. This collapse may also be the only solution that is really profitable for Ukraine. Pushing Russia out of its territory will only be a temporary result, if the regime does not change in Russia, Ukraine will always be in danger. The only option to guarantee a prosperous, stable and peaceful future for Ukraine remains a Revolution in Russia. This Revolution is only possible in two scenarios: Victory of Ukraine on the front (which will not guarantee a Revolution but can facilitate it), or support from Ukraine for the Russian Revolution (which is also not a guarantee but at least has the advantage of acting directly for the well-being of Ukraine).
Ukraine must not choose between these scenarios. It must implement both. If both succeed, the result will be excellent. If only one succeeds, it can facilitate the culmination of the other (A Victory will accelerate the Revolution in Russia / A Revolution in Russia will promote the Liberation of Ukraine).
All other scenarios will be catastrophic for Ukraine. Including the collapse of Russia. Ukraine should not hope for the collapse of Russia in any case because without Russia there will be no one to pay reparations, and the risks for Ukraine and the whole world will be increased tenfold because of the Internal Wars in the Russian space and the dispersal of the Russian nuclear arsenal (not to mention the flow of refugees).
Ukraine needs Absolute Victory to liberate its territory and a Russian Revolution to guarantee its future. It must put all its efforts in these two directions.